Tuesday, March 12, 2013

A 1980's Bull Market Repeating Itself

When looking back on history and the beginning of one of the greatest bull markets of all-time there are eerily similar circumstances today and the 1980's.

Beginning in 1982 the stock market began an unmatched bull market that did not end until 2000, 18 years later.

Richard Berstein put out in a recent note a list of the concerns we have today with the market and compared them to the 1980's. It was interesting to see the concerns we have today are basically identical to those of the 1980's.

Here are a few off the list:

  • An out-of-control Federal Reserve - YES
  • Slow growth economy - YES
  • Iran causing geopolitical risk - YES
  • Prior decades sub-par equity returns - YES
  • Inflation - YES (at least for me it is a concern today)
  • Federal Budget Deficits and Entitlements - YES
  • Tax Reform - YES
It is tough to argue with the facts when laid out like that.

On another note, keep in mind that the concerns/issues you have now that are keeping you from being in the market are not the issues that will cause the next bear market. The issues that we all talk about are already priced into the stock market. The cause of the next bubble to burst is not in your mind right now. Did you think the 2007 financial collapse would happen based on what you knew a few months before it happened? Not at all.....

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