The weekly jobless claims came in at 382k, higher than expected and last week's number was revised higher to 385k from 382k. The more important 4-week moving average rose 2k to to 378k, the highest level since June.
Earlier this month this number would have sent the market higher as it would have been a signal that QE3 was on its way. BUT, QE3 is already here. So now what? Well the market is off about 0.4% heading into the 9am ET hour.
If the Fed and Obama believe that QE3 will solve the unemployment picture they are more out of tune than I initially believed. Look for this number to remain high and it could be above 390k within weeks.
Market expert and TV personality Matt McCall blogs about what is really moving the markets. He will emphasize Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and individual stocks throughout the trading day.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Housing Starts: Bullish or Bearish?
The chart below shows the US Housing starts and permits over the last few decades. Even with the rebound over the last 2 years, the housing market has a long way to go to get back to the bottom of the past recessions.
This can be view in 2 ways: 1) the housing market has a long way to go on the upside and this is only the beginning of the rebound (bullish) and 2) this recovery is weak and only a dead cat bounce off historic lows and the recovery is a farce (bearish).
In this situation I am in the bullish camp.
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