Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Guess the Strongest Country ETF?

A country with a population greater than France, Spain, or Italy. 

A country that relies on trade with the Euro Zone. 

A country that is estimated to grow their GDP at a rate of 4.1 in 2013.

A country that geographically up against Greece as well as the geopolitical mess that is Syria.

A country who's ETF is up 8% in 2013 and hitting a 2-year high.

Did you guess Turkey? If not, you were incorrect.

The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF ($TUR) has had a great 2013 and been on a tear since hitting a low in May of last year. The ETF has rallied 60% in the last 8 months.

The country recently announced they believe the economy will grow at least 4% from last years 3% and that inflation should fall from 6.16% in 2012 to 5.3%. The one concern the World Bank has is that the current account deficit is expected to increase from 6.8% to 7.0% this year before falling to 6.8% in 2014.

The bigger concern for me is two-fold. Number one is the issues with its neighbor Syria. That situation could explode. The second is the reliance on the Euro Zone as their number one trading partner. If Europe slows again it will directly affect Turkey. 


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