Breaking Down the Jobs Numbers

The weekly jobs number was released this morning at 8:30 and it appears the labor market is not improving. Here is the breakdown:

• Weekly jobless claims came in at 387,000 a decline of 2,000 from last week but still way too elevated for even a modest economic recovery.
• The claims from the prior reading were revised up by 3,000 to 389,000. This has been an ongoing trend - revisions are almost always higher the following week. The number could hit 390,00 if that trend continues next week.
• The 4-week moving average increased by 3,500 to 386,250, the highest level since December of last year. This number is more important because it shows the trend and unfortunately it is going in the wrong direction.
• The big question is whether this trend suggest the monthly numbers will be even worse? Unfortunately it appears that will be the case when the June numbers are reported in early July.