Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Morning Outlook - Dow 13K, Yen, New Oil Highs

Dow 13K

Yesterday the Dow eclipsed the 13,000 level for the first time in nearly four years, but was unable to hold onto the psychological level. Even thought the 13K level is meaningless on a technical basis, it does hold significant psychological importance to some investors. I am sure there were a a handful that told themselves they would sell once the Dow got back to 13K - and apparently they did just that yesterday. As fun as it is to watch the big round number, you need to realize the more important level to watch is support at 12,750 area on any pullback. The DIAMONDS Trust ETF ($DIA) tracks the Dow 30.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen continues to fall versus the US Dollar as it hits a new 7-month low this morning. This is due to more action by the Bank of Japan to get the CPI back into positive territory. To achieve this goal it will look to force down the value of the Yen. The Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF ($FXY) has broken support and we are considering selling the remainder of our shares and locking in a double-digit gain for clients. It is tough to fight the BOJ.

Brent Crude High

At nearly 78.71 Sterling per barrel, Brent Crude is at a record high in Sterling terms. What does this mean to you and I? Well if the high oil price has a negative affect on the UK and other European countries it could exasperate the slowdown in the region and could spill over to the US. This is a situation we need to keep our eyes on. The United States Brent Oil ETF ($BNO) is trading at an all-time high.

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