Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Market Recap - Fading Rally

If the closing bell rang at 2:15 today instead of 4:00 it would have been one of best days in weeks. But unfortunately for the bulls the bell still rings at 4pm. When all was said and done the S&P 500 was up a mere 11 points or 1.0%. The Dow hung on for a gain of 150 points or 1.4%. Not bad gains, but considering the Dow was up 326 points with 2 hours left it trading it is concerning.

Late day sell-offs are never a good sign for the market. There was no clear-cut reason for the sell-off other than traders booking profits and some confusing comments regarding a possible Greek bailout.

My other Thoughts of the Day.

  • This falls under the Amusing Headline of the Day category: The has-been banking analyst, turned muni bond analyst, back to wannabe banking analyst Meredith Whitney dramatically lowered her earnings estimates for several big name financials. The likes of $JPM, $GS, $MS all had their estimates slashed by the "hack" and could have fueled some of the selling. Sure, she was sorta right on her banking call in 2008, BUT does anyone remember her muni bond call about a year ago?? One of the WORST CALLS in history of big-mouth market calls in my opinion. You can find my thoughts about the call last year in the WSJ, NY Times, etc. Anyway, we do we care what she says anymore. She clearly likes headlines - but what about making prudent estimates?

  • Today was a "Loser Rally" for the Dow. The top 5 gainers today in the index all hit or were near 52-week lows in the last week. The were: $HPQ, $DIS, $CAT, $DD, $TRV. Every dog has it's day in the sun. On the flip side, it was a bullish indicator that all 30 Dow stocks closed up at least 0.7% on the day. In case anyone cares the Top 2 stocks on the Dow this year are $IBM and $MCD.

  • A niche area that looks interesting today is the Grain Commodities. The iPath Grains ETN ($JJG) has strong support at $46 and closed today at $46.93. I am keeping a close eye on the action the remainder of the week. I love the ags long-term. Also, a NEW ETF Alert: Teucrium Soybeans ETF ($SOYB) and Teucrium Wheat ETF ($WEAT) began trading last week. They join the Teucrium Corn ETF ($CORN). All three grains make up $JJG.

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